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NRF: Holiday sales to decline 1 percent

October 06, 2009
According to a forecast released by the NRF on Tuesday, 2009 holiday retail sales are not expected to drop as dramatically as last year's 3.4 percent decline.
Washington--U.S. holiday retail sales are expected to decline one percent this year to $437.6 billion, according to a National Retail Federation (NRF) forecast released on Tuesday.

These sales include retail industry sales in November and December at traditional retail categories such as discounters, department stores, grocery stores and specialty stores, but exclude sales at automotive dealers, gas stations and restaurants.
 
While this number falls significantly below the 10-year average of 3.39 percent holiday retail sales growth, the decline is not expected to be as dramatic as last year's 3.4 percent drop in holiday retail sales nor as severe as the 3 percent decline in annual retail sales expected for all of 2009.
 
"As the global economy continues to recover from the worst economic crisis most retailers have ever seen, Americans will focus primarily on practical gifts and shop on a budget this holiday season," NRF Chief Economist Rosalind Wells said in a media release.
 
Although some hopeful signs of a recovery have begun to emerge, such as better-than-expected August retail sales and momentum in the stock market, according to the NRF, continued consumer uncertainty over job security and housing values will take a toll on spending this holiday season. Retailers in response are expected to become even more promotional, and certain popular holiday categories such as apparel and electronics might experience deflation due to aggressive sales.
 
"The expectation of another challenging holiday season does not come as news to retailers, who have been experiencing a pullback in consumer spending for over a year," NRF President and CEO Tracy Mullin said in the release. "To compensate, retailers' focus on the holiday season has been razor-sharp with companies cutting back as much as possible on operating costs in order to pass along aggressive savings and promotions to customers."
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